Batesville, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

811
FXUS64 KLZK 100548
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Weather conditions were quiet across AR on this Wednesday afternoon.
Skies were mostly clear and temperatures had climbed into the
upper 60s to mid 70s on S/SWrly winds. Winds are expected to gust
between 15-25 mph this afternoon as the PGF tightens across the
region between a surface high to our E and approaching cold front
and associated surface low to our W.

Synoptically, upper level ridging was situated over the Four
Corners region with weak bimodal troughing over the Great Lakes/New
England regions. Between these features, NW was positioned across
the plains, entire MS Valley, into much of SErn CONUS.

By Thursday afternoon, jet energy is expected to traverse NW flow
promoting scattered thunderstorm development over mainly the NE half
of AR during the afternoon and early evening hours. The environment
these storms would be going up into can be depicted by SBCAPE of
1500-3000 J/Kg with morning CIN eroding from -100 to -200 J/Kg to
near 0 J/Kg by early afternoon. Forecasted 0-1 km helicity of
75-150 m2/s2 and 0-3 km helicity of 100-250 m2/s2, with lapse
rates steepening from 5-6 C/km to 7-8 C/km. Forecasted STP values
are on the order of 0.5 to 1.5. Dew point temperatures appear to
be a limiting factor with readings only rebounding into upper 50s
to lower 60s. Given the above information, convection is expected
to fire around 2PM over N-Cntrl AR, sweeping SEwrd through about
9PM. After 9PM, this activity should exit or be exiting the CWA to
the SE.

Looking at the forecasted parameter space mentioned above, large
hail would be one of two primary hazards thanks to steepening
mid-level lapse rates. Points soundings suggest drier air may
exist near the surface which could lead to an almost equal
potential of damaging winds. The threat for tornadoes will be
much lower than large hail and damaging wind threat, but remains
in place given just enough wind shear with height. Hi-res CAMs
indicate cells may manage to remain discrete as supercells,
prolonging the potential of severe weather. All this activity is
expected to develop along and ahead of a passing cold front.

Surface high pressure will build into the region on Friday and
Saturday in the wake of the cold front bringing drier air, cooler
conditions, and subsident flow aloft to AR.

Heading into Sunday, upper flow will transition from NWrly to
W/SWrly meanwhile at the surface winds will increase in magnitude
in response to a tightening PGF. Additional round of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible for portions of AR late Monday
into Monday night ahead of a cold front. Details around the
potential for severe weather remain unclear at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

VFR conds still look to prevail thru the PD. An initial upper
impulse wl cont working east of the FA early this mrng, with
another fcst to pass acrs the area later today and early tngt. A
few showers/storms wl accompany the second system, mainly
affecting northeast AR. There wl be periods of mid and high lvl
clouds traversing the area. Light west/southwest winds, wl incrs
fm the west and northwest later on Thu, following the passage of a
cold front.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...44